NOAA Releases 2024 Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released its 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, and it is predicting an above-normal hurricane season. 

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Hurricane season began on June 1 and will continue through Nov. 30. 

One level deeper: According to NOAA, there is an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season, with a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

For this Atlantic Hurricane Season, NOAA forecasters predict between 17 and 25 named storms, of which eight to 13 will become hurricanes, with four to six of those hurricanes likely to reach “major hurricane” status of at least Category 3 ranking. The above-normal prediction is based on projected La Niña activity in the Pacific, which weakens wind shear and enhances atmospheric instability, leading to optimal hurricane conditions.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.

What's next: If your site is in an area that is prone to hurricane risk, you should review FEMA’s hurricane preparation advice at www.ready.gov/hurricanes. And you should also be able to recognize warnings and alerts by having several ways to receive them. You can download the FEMA app and receive real-time alerts from the National Weather Service for up to five locations nationwide. And you can sign up for community alerts in your area and be aware of the Emergency Alert System (EAS) and Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA), which require no sign up.